World losing more barrels of oil a day than in two 1970s crises combined, says IEA chief
Krishani Dhanji
The head of the International Energy Agency is addressing Australia’s national press club now and says the public needs to understand the “depth of the problem” facing the globe.
Fatih Birol starts by saying the situation is now “very serious”, more so than the two oil crises in 1973 and 1979, and more serious than the gas crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
At that time, in each [oil] crisis, the world has lost about 5 million barrels per day, both of them together 10 million barrels per day. And after that we all know that there were major economic problems around the world. And today we lost 11 million barrels – so more than two major oil shocks put together.
Plus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the gas markets\ – especially in Europe – we lost about 75 billion consumer metres, 75BCM. And as of now, as a result of this crisis, we lost about 140BCM, almost twice. So the situation is, if we want to put in a context, this crisis as it stands now, two oil crises and one gas crash put all together.
Birol adds that the crisis is also having a severe impact on other “vital arteries of the global economy”, including petrochemicals and fertilisers, which will have lasting impacts.
Key events
Returning to the International Energy Agency chief’s address in Australia, Fatih Birol also said dozens of energy assets in the Middle East had been damaged in the war.
At least 40 … energy assets in the region are severely or very severely damaged across nine countries.
Israel launches new wave of strikes on Tehran
The Israeli military is saying it has launched a wave of “extensive strikes” on Tehran targeting infrastructure of the Iranian regime.
The announcement came in a social media post early on Monday.
Blasts have just been heard in Tehran, according to Iranian media reports.
Separately, Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry said it had detected two ballistic missiles fired towards the Riyadh area.
One was intercepted and the other fell in to an uninhabited area, it said on X, quoting a ministry spokesperson.
It also said that it had intercepted and destroyed a drone in the country’s eastern region.
The International Energy Agency chief says the energy crisis might require energy reduction measures such as working from home for some time.
Fatih Birol says a list of recommendations including encouraging more people to work from home, reduce speed limits and reduce air travel to save fuel are based on “years of experience”, my colleague Krishani Dhanji reports from the Australian capital.
Birol tells the national press club in Canberra that since the IEA released its report with the measures on Friday, a number of countries – including in the Asia-Pacific region – have adopted some of the ideas, but that “governments have their own priorities”.
These measures we have announced last Friday are based on our years of experience. We look at what works, what doesn’t work and there are real life tests for that, such as after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European countries adopted these measures … it helped them a lot to go through these difficult times.
As soon as I announced them on Friday we heard from many governments in Europe but also in this part of the world, they have already adopted some.
World losing more barrels of oil a day than in two 1970s crises combined, says IEA chief
Krishani Dhanji
The head of the International Energy Agency is addressing Australia’s national press club now and says the public needs to understand the “depth of the problem” facing the globe.
Fatih Birol starts by saying the situation is now “very serious”, more so than the two oil crises in 1973 and 1979, and more serious than the gas crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
At that time, in each [oil] crisis, the world has lost about 5 million barrels per day, both of them together 10 million barrels per day. And after that we all know that there were major economic problems around the world. And today we lost 11 million barrels – so more than two major oil shocks put together.
Plus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the gas markets\ – especially in Europe – we lost about 75 billion consumer metres, 75BCM. And as of now, as a result of this crisis, we lost about 140BCM, almost twice. So the situation is, if we want to put in a context, this crisis as it stands now, two oil crises and one gas crash put all together.
Birol adds that the crisis is also having a severe impact on other “vital arteries of the global economy”, including petrochemicals and fertilisers, which will have lasting impacts.
Iran’s warning that it will strike energy and water infrastructure across the Persian Gulf if Donald Trump follows through on his threat to destroy its power plants has raised fears of mass disruption in a region heavily dependent on desalination for drinking water.
Such an attack on Iran’s electricity could hurt Iran but would be potentially catastrophic for its Gulf neighbours, which consume around five times as much power per capita.
Reuters describes how electricity makes their gleaming desert cities habitable, in part by powering the desalination plants that produce 100% of the water consumed in Bahrain and Qatar.
Such plants use seawater to meet more than 80% of drinking water needs in the United Arab Emirates, and 50% of the water supply in Saudi Arabia.
Donald Trump on Sunday gave Iran 48 hours to fully reopen the vital strait of Hormuz to shipping or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, has doubled down on the country’s warning of retaliation, saying on X that critical infrastructure and energy facilities in the Middle East could be “irreversibly destroyed” should Iranian power plants be attacked.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it would also mean the shipping lane where a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally transits along Iran’s southern coast would remain shut.
“The strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not be opened until our destroyed power plants are rebuilt,” the Guards said in a statement.
In Gaza, four Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes on Sunday, hospital authorities said.
One strike hit a vehicle in the central Nuseirat refugee camp and killed three police officers, according to the Awda hospital, which received the casualties. Ten others were wounded, it said.
Another Palestinian was killed in Gaza City, according to Shifa hospital.
A report from the Associated Press went on to say while the heaviest fighting between Israel and Hamas has subsided after the October ceasefire deal in the war on Gaza, the truce has still seen almost daily Israeli fire.
Israeli forces have carried out repeated airstrikes and frequently fire on Palestinians near military-held zones, killing more than 670 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials.
The Israeli military did not immediately comment on Sunday’s strikes but has previously said Israel will respond to violations of the ceasefire or threats to its soldiers.
Starmer calls emergency meeting on UK economy amid mounting risks from war
British prime minister Keir Starmer is set to chair an emergency meeting on the economic fallout from the war in Iran on Monday, with chancellor of the exchequer Rachel Reeves and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey also attending, the UK government has said.
Financial markets face another turbulent week after Iran said it would strike its Gulf neighbours’ energy and water systems if Donald Trump followed through on his threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it doesn’t fully open up the crucial strait of Hormuz.
The UK is watching with particular unease, Reuters reports. The country’s heavy dependence on imported natural gas, persistently high inflation and stretched public finances have pushed its government bonds into a far steeper decline than those of international peers.
Britain’s finance ministry said before the so-called “Cobra” meeting:
Topics expected to be covered are the economic impact of the crisis on families and businesses, energy security and the resilience of industry and supply chains alongside the international response.
Foreign secretary Yvette Cooper and energy secretary Ed Miliband will also attend.
Reeves has said it is too soon to say what the impact of the war will be for Britain’s economy and has resisted calls for sweeping cost-of-living measures for households, saying instead that more targeted support is under consideration.
Lorenzo Tondo
Israeli settlers have carried out a series of attacks across the occupied West Bank, setting homes and vehicles on fire and wounding several Palestinians in what witnesses described as coordinated raids on communities.
The violence, reported across at least half a dozen locations overnight from Saturday into Sunday, comes amid a wider surge in tensions in the territory.
The official Palestinian news agency, Wafa, cited local sources as saying settlers had entered al-Fandaqumiya and the nearby town of Seilat al-Dahr, south of Jenin, late on Saturday.
In al-Fandaqumiya, settlers set fire to houses and cars and smashed windows of other homes as residents “attempted to confront them and put out the fires”, according to Wafa. In Seilat al-Dahr, several homes were targeted and a resident was beaten, leaving him injured.
In the villages of Qaryout and Jaloud, south of Nablus, about 100 masked settlers carried out successive waves of raids. Witnesses described scenes of chaos as vehicles were set ablaze and homes attacked.
Israeli troops and police were present on the outskirts of the villages by 2am but did not stop the attacks, which continued into the night, or prevent settlers moving between villages, witnesses told the Guardian.
The attacks unfolded during Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of Ramadan, and form part of a broader escalation in settler violence.
The full report is here:
At least one person has been killed in an airstrike on a radio station in the Iranian gulf port of Bandar Abbas, the semi-official Mehr news agency is reportedly saying.
The port city is on Iran’s southern coast on the strait of Hormuz.
US warns Americans worldwide to show ‘increased caution’
The US state department has issued a message urging American citizens around the globe to be more cautious amid the Iran war.
The department posted on X:
Worldwide Caution: The Department of State advises Americans worldwide, and especially in the Middle East, to exercise increased caution.
It also said:
U.S. diplomatic facilities, including outside the Middle East, have been targeted.
Groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or locations associated with the United States and/or Americans throughout the world.
The state department added that periodic airspace closures might cause travel disruptions and that Americans abroad should follow the guidance in security alerts issued by the nearest US embassy or consulate.
Australian shares plunge as investors weigh Trump ultimatum
Jonathan Barrett
The Australian share market plunged this morning, wiping almost $60bn in value from equities in early trading after the US and Iran traded threats to destroy energy infrastructure.
Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.8% shortly after the market opened.
The index is now down 10% since the Middle East conflict erupted, representing a market correction.
The steep losses come part-way through Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran to open the strait of Hormuz, a vital pathway for the world’s oil flows.
The head of research at Pepperstone, Chris Weston, said Trump’s ultimatum would define trading conditions.
If we move past the deadline, focus will quickly shift to the scale of any action against Iran and the nature of Iran’s response, particularly toward US bases and its allies.
While investors largely ignored the initial strikes against Iran, sentiment has soured due to concerns the US does not have a clean exit strategy that can guarantee a stable resumption of the oil trade, and other freight, through the crucial strait.
The ASX has been pulled around by sharp moves in the oil price, with rising energy prices fuelling global inflation, which drags down equity markets.
An influential pro-Iran Iraqi armed group has announced it will extend a pause on its attacks on the US embassy in Baghdad by five days.
“The deadline given to the embassy of American evil will be extended by an additional five days,” the Kataeb Hezbollah group said in a statement on Monday.
The group warned that it would respond if it came under attack and denied involvement in a drone strike that hit an Iraqi intelligence building on Saturday, killing an officer, reports Agence France-Presse.
Oil prices rise after Trump ultimatum on Hormuz strait
The price of oil increased early on Monday after Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to open the strait of Hormuz or face decimation of its energy infrastructure – and Israel warned the war would continue for several more weeks.
Shortly after the 2200 GMT open, the price of West Texas Intermediate – the US benchmark crude – for May delivery was up 1.8% to just over $100 a barrel, before retreating slightly.
The price of North Sea Brent crude for May delivery rose at a similar rate, to $113.44 a barrel, before sliding to around $111 about 45 minutes into trading, Agence France-Presse is reporting.
On 27 February, the day before the US-Israeli attacks on Iran started, they were $67.02 and $72.48 a barrel, respectively.
Summary of the day
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Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian said “threats and terror” are strengthening Iranian unity, after Donald Trump yesterday warned he would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if the strait of Hormuz is not opened within 48 hours.
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The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, gave an interview to NBC News earlier today. When asked if Trump was “winding” down the war or “escalating” it, Bessent said: “They are not mutually exclusive. Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate.”
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In the same NBC interview, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said that the US government has “plenty of money” to fund the war against Iran, but is requesting supplemental funding from Congress to ensure the military is well supplied in the future.
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Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Sunday that 118 children and 79 women are among those killed, and at least 2,786 others have been wounded, according to the Associated Press. The country’s death toll as of Saturday was 1,024 people.
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The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, said he hopes to “re-establish” talks between Iran and the US about Tehran’s nuclear program despite the escalating nature of the conflict. “I’ve been having important conversations here at the White House, and also with Iran. There are some contacts, and we hope to be able to reestablish that line,” Grossi told CBS News.
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UK prime minister Keir Starmer and US president Trump spoke by phone Sunday evening, according to a statement from the UK government. “The leaders discussed the current situation in the Middle East, and in particular, the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to resume global shipping.”
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Pope Leo on Sunday said death and suffering caused by the war in the Middle East are a “scandal to the whole human family”, as he once again pleaded for an immediate ceasefire. “We cannot remain silent in the face of the suffering of so many people, the defenseless victims of these conflicts. What hurts them hurts the whole of humanity,” Leo said at his weekly Angelus prayer in St. Peter’s Square.
